Super Bowl LVII is the biggest “public” betting event on the calendar for sportsbooks, which means a wave of first-time and recreation bettors driving the action, rather than wise guys and professional gamblers.
That influx of public money has many people looking to risk a little to win a lot with their Super Bowl picks. That’s the reason a bet like a “safety being the first score” of the Big Game is now sitting around +4,000 odds compared to the +7,500 it used to have a decade ago.
You see, bookmakers took a bath on that specific prop not once but twice in recent years, with Super Bowl XLVI and Super Bowl XLVIII both having a safety as the opening score of the game. Those long-shot bets took a good chunk out of the books’ profits for those Super Bowls as public players gravitate to the high-risk/high-reward props.
Now, bettors need to recognize that the implied probability tied to these Super Bowl odds markets doesn’t actually reflect the real probability of these rare happenings or the fair price. And many books won’t offer two-way odds on these long-shots props with no “Yes/No” options. They’ll just stick a lowball price on the board for an occurrence that should pay out more than double what they’re offering.
However, if you can’t resist the urge again this year and want to take a swing at a couple of get-rich-quick odds, here are a few of the biggest Super Bowl LVII betting long shots.
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Betting the safety
While we’re on the subject of the safety, it remains one of the most popular long-shot Super Bowl props on the board each Super Sunday. Hell, betting the safety has become as much a Big Game tradition as making your top-secret chili recipe and calling in sick to work on Monday.
As mentioned above, taking a safety to be the first score of the game – AKA the “other” option in this particular prop — is paying out between +3,000 and +4,500, depending on where you play. That’s a far cry from the potential return books used to dangle in front of bettors before those infamous safeties in 2012 and 2014. Bookies know there’s going to be blind money coming in on this prop, so they pad it a bit with an implied probability of 2.44%, according to the odds.
As for a Super Bowl safety at any point in the game, that’s sitting at Yes +925/No -1,600. And much like those past safeties to open scoring, there was a rash of Big Game safeties overall in Super Bowls that also burned bookies with this long-shot market. A safety popped up in four of six Super Bowls from XLIII to XLVIII with a string of three straight years (2012-2014).
The 2022 NFL season had 13 total safeties scored (Kansas City had one), and there were just eight in 2021. That’s a downtick from 2020, which had 24 total safties scored — just two behind the NFL record of 26 in 1988. The three seasons prior to that (2017-2019) had safety totals of 17, 10, and 15.
This year’s rate means that less than 5% of games recorded a safety-in-the-box score. However, that +925 price tag on the Super Bowl LVII safety prop boasts an implied probability of 9.76%. This bet should be offering odds on the “Yes” in the +2,000 range, so if you’re sprinkling some action on the safety, be sure to shop around.
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Opening kickoff returned for a touchdown
Football bettors all remember Devin Hester breaking off a 92-yard kick return touchdown to open Super Bowl XLI between the Chicago Bears and Indianapolis Colts. Hester, regarded as the greatest kick returner in NFL history, is the only player to take the Super Bowl opening kickoff to the house (a 1-in-56 happening so far).
That’s why this long-shot bet is sitting at +10,000 odds for Super Bowl LVII.
Since implementing new kickoff rules to protect special teams players, we’ve seen more touchbacks and fewer opportunities for return touchdowns.
The 2022 season averaged 3.7 kick return attempts per game. There were 1,011 total return attempts on the season, and just six of those went for touchdowns, which means there was a 0.59% shot of a returner going all the way.
Plug that into the probability machine, and you should see odds of +17,000 just on a kick return TD at any time during the Super Bowl. Limit that to only one kickoff to start the game, and the +10,000 return hardly seems worth the squeeze. The other side of this prop is priced at -50,000 for the “No” on the opening kickoff touchdown. Got an extra $50K lying around?
Exact score
Picking the exact score of the Super Bowl is tricky business, which is why most of the possible results come with a hefty ROI. According to oddsmakers’ prices, the most likely final outcomes are Eagles 27-24 and Kansas City 27-24, both listed as +4,900 front runners.
If you went by the current spread and total (Eagles -1, 51 O/U), you’d be looking at a final around Philadelphia 26, and Kansas City 25, which is not on the board at this time. According to nflscorigami.com, only one NFL game has finished with that exact score: Miami beat Las Vegas 26-25 on December 26, 2020.
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Super Bowl overtime
Depending on where you bet, the prop on overtime occurring in Super Bowl LVII is around +1,000. bet365, for example, has “Yes” on overtime at +1,025 while “No” is at -1,800.
The Super Bowl LVII spread is calling for a close one, with this line as slim as Eagles -1.
Of course, for history buffs, you already know that Super Bowl LI – the infamous 28-3 game – between New England and Atlanta was the only Big Game to need an extra frame.
If you look at just recent postseason matchups, 24 of the past 157 NFL playoff games have gone to OT – 15.3%. That translates to about +560 odds. And considering the slim 1.5-point spread for Super Bowl LVII, this could be one of the rare long-shot bets that are actually worth a wager.
