The script is simple enough to follow. The Dallas Cowboys need to beat the Washington Commanders in Week 18 to win the NFC East and earn a home playoff game.
But as football bettors saw last week when Philadelphia fell to Arizona — gift-wrapping the division crown for the Cowboys — things don’t always go according to plan.
Toss in a double-digit spread set by the NFL odds, and Dallas backers have some hard decisions to make in the final week of the regular season.
I run down this sizable spread and Over/Under total and give my free NFL picks for the Cowboys vs. Commanders on Sunday, January 7.
Cowboys vs Commanders odds
Cowboys vs Commanders predictions
A perfect Week 18 situation for Dallas Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy would be to come out swinging and build a big lead, which would allow him to pull his starters in the second half of this regular-season finale.
The Cowboys can lock up the NFC East and a home game in the playoffs with a win but want to do so without risking the health of their key talents. The Washington Commanders are just the team to do this against.
Washington has ranked among the worst defenses all season but is especially soft in the opening 30 minutes of action. On the year, the Commanders give up a league-high 16.4 first-half points per game and rank 32nd in EPA allowed per play in the first two quarters.
The Cowboys are the highest-scoring offense in opening halves in the NFL, but their output on the road has been mediocre. They average just Over 12 points per first half as a visitor compared to 22.3 first-half points at home. On top of that, the defense has seen similar severe splits between home and away.
Because of the team’s road woes, I’m steering clear of laying the first-half spread with Dallas, especially with books padding that derivative line to Cowboys -7.5.
Instead, I’m digging deep into the scoring props for the opening 30 minutes and taking Dallas to go Over 1.5 touchdowns in the open half.
Not only does Washington hemorrhage 1H points, but the Commanders’ depth chart is running dangerously thin in the secondary heading into Week 18. Washington already has plenty of pass defenders on IR and could be down its two starting corners versus the Cowboys’ high-flying passing attack.
Dallas scored three first-half touchdowns vs. the Commanders at home on Thanksgiving and has added incentive to strike early and often in the opening two frames of Week 18.
My best bet: Cowboys Over 1.5 1H touchdowns (-140 at bet365)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Cowboys vs Commanders same-game parlay
Cowboys Over 1.5 1H touchdownsJake Ferguson Over 3.5 receptionsTony Pollard anytime TD
+280 at bet365
The Cowboys will come out very aggressive, trying to blow this game wide open early and allow them to sit starters in the second half.
Jake Ferguson’s Week 18 projections are all very positive and he’ll like play the entire game, unlike Dallas’ other skill players.
Tony Pollard can run it in or catch a TD pass against a thin Commanders defense that has allowed 18 total TDs to running backs.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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